It is difficult to remember the last time Sergio Perez’s seat at Red Bull was not under intense scrutiny and pressure. Perhaps at the start of this season, after four podiums in the first five races, and with the stance of Christian Horner’s juggernaut as the sport’s No 1 outfit on track in no doubt at all. Now though, the sands have shifted.

With five races left in 2024, Red Bull are second in the constructors’ championship: 40 points off McLaren in first but just eight points ahead of Ferrari in third. Max Verstappen, chasing a fourth-straight drivers’ title, has accrued over 70% of Red Bull’s points himself. Perez, however, is a mammoth 204 points behind his teammate, languishing eighth in the individual table.

It is, by far, the biggest margin between teammates in the sport. Yet still, the 34-year-old remains in his post ahead of his home race in Mexico City this weekend. His 2021 podium at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, with his adoring father watching on, is undoubtedly a career highlight.

But will this year be Perez’s final home outing? The pressure cooker is heating up, amid a run of form which shows no sign of improving. The only solace for Perez – a figure well-liked throughout all sectors of the paddock – is that there is no obvious replacement for him within the Red Bull ecosystem. He also continues to have the backing of his team principal.

However, even Horner’s tone seems to have altered in recent weeks. “We need to make sure that with both of our drivers, there’s not a big gap between them because you can’t afford to have that,” he said, prior to Austin when Perez failed to reach the final session in qualifying.

With Daniel Ricciardo’s axing from F1 last month after round 18 in Singapore, you’d have been forgiven for thinking Perez was taking a huge sigh of relief. The popular Australian had been brought back into Red Bull’s sister team, RB, with the pure intention of seeing if he was capable of becoming Verstappen’s teammate in 2025. Turns out, he wasn’t.

But Ricciardo’s replacement, Liam Lawson, threw down an early marker at the Circuit of the Americas. Starting at the back of the grid due to an engine penalty, the New Zealander – in a considerably weaker car – finished just two spots behind Perez in ninth, securing two points on his return. Red Bull commander-in-chief Helmut Marko has already mooted the prospect of Lawson stepping up to the mothership next year.

And then there’s Yuki Tsunoda, who has been at RB since 2021 but still hasn’t been granted an opportunity to partner Verstappen. The Japanese driver has, after a terrific start to 2024, fallen away slightly but continues to have the support of Marko. Ex-F1 race winner Johnny Herbert believes Tsunoda deserves an opportunity at Red Bull, though Horner remains sceptical.

But beyond Red Bull, Perez’s potential absence from the grid next year could have major ramifications for his home race, which returned in 2015 after a 23-year hiatus. The Mexico City Grand Prix – renamed in 2021 to promote the capital city and emphasise the city government support – has a contract with F1 for next year but no further.

It is one of seven venues whose deals run out in 2025, with F1 chief executive Stefano Domenicali open to different locations hosting a race.

Would Perez’s absence from the grid impact the chances of a contract extension? It would be a factor but, speaking last year, race managing director Federico Rodriguez insists it would not be decisive.

“We know that Checo is not going to be here one day,” Rodriguez said. “What we are working on is to have the experience work not only around Checo but the whole sport.

“You have a lot of Checo followers, but you also have Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari or other teams. It may diminish the sales, but we know that is going to happen. So, we’re working hard on the experience for the attendees.”

“I know that we’re going to suffer if we lose Checo, but we have to plan accordingly and account for that.”

Entertainment group CIE now promotes the race and has attracted 400,000 spectators in each of the last two years. The old-school racetrack, with its famous Foro Sol stadium section, also now hosts Formula E but F1 races are often routine affairs – with one major overtaking spot (the huge main straight down into turn one) not conducive to captivating wheel-to-wheel racing, the like of which we saw in Austin on Sunday.

But much like the re-emergence of the Dutch Grand Prix amid Verstappen’s era of dominance, F1 without Perez would be damaging to Mexico’s aura as a grand prix spectacle and could see it lose its spot on the calendar.

Perez himself, in his 14th-straight season in the sport, will be desperate for a positive result on Sunday. The consequences, for his future and the long-term prospects of his home race, could be seismic. If not, it feels as though the clock is ticking on his F1 career.