As harsh as Logan Sargeant‘s axe from Williams might seem, there were signs it was coming. Since the opening few races of the season, there had been speculation about the 23-year-old American being replaced, and at no point was it denied by Williams team principal James Vowles.

The decision made early in the year to pursue Carlos Sainz as Sargeant’s replacement for next season meant the Floridian’s time at the team was ticking down fast. Even if the chase for Sainz proved fruitless (Williams signed the Ferrari driver last month), it seemed unlikely that Sargeant was a serious contender for 2025.

This too should have come as no surprise as his inclusion in the team’s driver lineup for 2024 was far from convincing. Sargeant had to wait until five days after the final round in Abu Dhabi last year for confirmation of his second season in Formula One, while the rest of the grid had long been locked in.

When the deal was signed in December 2023, there was a genuine hope within Williams that a second season would help unlock more of the raw performance the team had seen from Sargeant in his junior career, while curbing his tendency to push the car beyond its limits and toward the scene of an accident. The target was simple: score more points (he scored one in 2023) and crash less often (the repair bill for his side of the garage had been in multiples of millions of dollars).

Yet as early as the Australian Grand Prix this year, it was clear the team lacked confidence in the American’s performance. When, during a practice session, teammate Alex Albon crashed and damaged one of the two Williams FW46s in existence beyond repair, it was Sargeant who was told to step out of his car so that Albon could race the rest of the weekend.

The team openly took the blame for arriving at the third round of the season without a spare chassis in its freight, but the decision to swap Albon into Sargeant’s car told you everything you needed to know about Williams’ faith in Sargeant’s ability to score points.

The timing of Sargeant’s first big accident of 2024 couldn’t have been much worse. Back in the car after the awkward situation in Australia, he crashed during FP1 at the next round in Japan after letting the car run wide at the high-speed Dunlop corner and losing control as he ran onto the grass.

“I put the car into a place I didn’t realise I was at,” Sargeant admitted. “It’s a bit of a silly error, to be honest, one that I shouldn’t be making, especially in P1.”

A clash with Kevin Magnussen at his home race in Miami wasn’t Sargeant’s fault, but it was already clear that the progression Williams had hoped to see during Sargeant’s sophomore season wasn’t coming easily. Around the same time, rumours that Mercedes junior driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli could replace him started to surface, even though the Italian was not yet 18 at the time and Mercedes showed little inclination to rush him into F1 in 2024.

An accident of Sargeant’s own making during the Canadian Grand Prix saw him crash out on a weekend when the car looked reasonably competitive. The conditions were difficult and the spin would not have stood out as dramatically had he not been under pressure, but it did nothing to help the perception that Sargeant was already on borrowed time.

Vowles offered some protection for his driver when asked about a midseason swap, but never shied away from the reality of the situation. During a news conference at the British Grand Prix, he was asked if replacing the American midway through the campaign could be a possibility.

“We’re continually evaluating it,” Vowles said. “What we’ve said to Logan is it’s a meritocracy. You have to make sure you earn your place in the sport continuously. That’s been the same message that has been for 18 months really for him, and we are open-minded to things.”

Calling such comments “tough love” would probably be kind, but over the course of the British Grand Prix, they appeared to hit home as Sargeant was spurred on to his best result of the season with an 11th-place finish. What’s more, the level of performance expected by Williams appeared to be there and it was only the randomness of the weather and resulting tyre changes that left Sargeant just shy of a point or two.

Performances like the one at Silverstone have not been regular enough to justify Sargeant’s place in F1, though. His head-to-head qualifying record against Albon makes grim reading at 35-0 in the Thai driver’s favour, and there is little doubt that Sargeant is not at the level that Williams want or need. It’s also true, however, that the two drivers haven’t always been running the same specification of parts, with Albon given preference when upgrades have been limited.

Such an arrangement is not unusual within a midfield F1 team, and the decision to favour Albon is entirely based on his better performances and the belief that he is the safer pair of hands. What’s more, Williams’ engineers will know better than anyone else how the specification would impact performance expectations and can therefore still get an accurate picture of how far off Sargeant has been. For Sargeant, it has clearly been frustrating and at times he has alluded to the difficulty he faces in the already significant challenge of trying to match Albon.

“I think one of the bits that’s tricky is because we still have these … very small differences,” Sargeant said at the Belgian Grand Prix. “I come to these weekends and ultimately the truth is I have to drive over a tenth quicker to be a thousandth quicker [than Albon], so there’s still these little differences which make my life … a little bit more tricky. … That’s the way it goes.”

At the Dutch Grand Prix weekend, Sargeant’s car was fitted with the latest specification of Williams’ upgrade, making his mistake in final practice all the more galling. In wet conditions, Sargeant dipped a wheel in the grass exiting Turn 3 and became a passenger as the rear of the car swung round on him and sent him hard into the barriers on the other side of the track.

The car was wrecked, to the point that Sargeant was unable to compete in qualifying, and the latest upgrade that the team had worked so hard on was scattered across the circuit in thousands of tiny pieces. The team rebuilt the car overnight to the new specification, minus the latest rear wing, but by that point the writing was already on the wall for Sargeant.

Once again, the timing of the crash, after Williams had spent significant budget and resource in bringing the new parts to the track, could not have been worse.

Vowles visited Red Bull team principal Christian Horner after qualifying in Zandvoort to discuss the possibility of Liam Lawson stepping into the Williams from Monza. Lawson had impressed as Daniel Ricciardo‘s substitute at RB last year when the Australian broke a bone in his hand, and is being lined up for a seat somewhere within the Red Bull fold next year.

Horner was reluctant to loan Lawson out without the ability to recall him if Red Bull or RB needed a reserve, though, and it seems any chance of a deal fell flat. Mercedes reserve Mick Schumacher was also put forward by Toto Wolff as a potential Sargeant replacement, but never seemed like a true contender for the seat.

Instead, Williams turned to its own driver academy and 21-year-old Argentine Franco Colapinto. In his first full season in Formula 2, Colapinto has won a sprint race and been consistent enough to hold sixth place in the standings after 10 rounds — one place ahead of fellow rookie Antonelli and 10 places ahead of Haas-bound Oliver Bearman.

It may seem like a surprising decision, and arguably one that brings no guarantees of better results or smaller repair bills, but after the Zandvoort crash, Vowles felt the need to make a change. Colapinto took part in a Friday practice session with Williams at Silverstone — so the team has an understanding of what he can do in an F1 car as well as his feedback from the cockpit — and switching him with Sargeant provides the rare opportunity to fully assess the Argentine’s level before such avenues get blocked off by the strong lineup of Albon and Sainz next year.

It has been clear for some time that Sargeant is pursuing opportunities outside F1 for next year, so why not give the remaining nine races to Colapinto, thereby providing the team’s likely reserve driver for 2025 genuine seat time? He might not score points and he might make mistakes, but on the basis of Sargeant’s season so far, that won’t be significant steps backward.

“To replace a driver midseason is not a decision we have taken lightly, but we believe this gives Williams the best chance to compete for points over the remainder of the season,” Vowles said in Williams’ statement on Tuesday. “We have just brought a large upgrade to the car and need to maximise every points-scoring opportunity in a remarkably tight midfield battle.

“We also believe in investing in our young drivers in the Williams Racing Driver Academy, and Franco is getting a fantastic opportunity to demonstrate what he is capable of across the final nine rounds of the season.

“This is undoubtedly incredibly tough on Logan, who has given his all throughout his time with Williams, and we want to thank him for all his hard work and positive attitude. Logan remains a talented driver and we will support him to continue his racing career for the future.

“I know that Franco has great speed and huge potential, and we look forward to seeing what he can do in Formula One.”

For Colapinto it is a huge opportunity. There was no obvious place for him in F1 next year, but now he arrives in a car that, with its new upgrades, has top-10 potential. Expectations will be set low, but if he can exceed them, and perhaps even score points, it could have the same effect as Bearman’s one-off drive for Ferrari at this year’s Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, whereby suddenly he became a clear prospect for an F1 drive overnight.

For Williams, it provides a reset on Sargeant’s side of the garage and the possibility — even if it’s slim — of one of the feelgood stories of the year.